The Strait of Hormuz Standoff

It is mid-May and the Strait of Hormuz (“SOH”) blockage remains in place. Negotiations are ongoing but, at the time of writing, no resolution has been announced. Approximately 2,000 vessels remain stranded in the SOH and traffic through the strait has run at approximately 5% of its pre-war average throughout April. The SOH carries approximately 20% of global oil and natural gas flows. US gasoline prices have surged – according to the US EIA, the average national regular gasoline price is $4.50 per gallon up from approximately $2.80 before Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, 2026.

Grant Wealth Advisors’ CEO Amelia Bourdeau recently spoke with US Navy CMDCM Ryan King (Ret.) to get his current perspective on the Strait of Hormuz situation. These are key Q&As from the conversation.

For background, in what capacity have you been through the SOH?

I have been through the SOH dozens of times onboard different types of US Navy ships. This was in support of the execution of transit passage, freedom of navigation operations, anti-piracy, and intelligence operations.

How is Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran uses the viable threat of mines in the water throughout the SOH, anti-ship missiles from Bandar Abbas and Farsi Island, and small boat attack from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps/Navy (“IRGC/N”). They come out in a convoy, surround larger ships, and board them in order to overtake the ships and bring them back to Iran – they are essentially state sponsored pirates.

What are the main barriers to reopening the waterway, and which key organizations are driving the recovery efforts of the shipping?

The main barrier is military conflict which makes the SOH unviable, escalating carrying costs for shipping companies (insurance - costs are passed on to consumers). Long term impacts include: Internal conflict among the Gulf Cooperation Council (“GCC”) Nations on how to reopen the SOH and much broader strife from end state recipients (China, Russia, Europe) of these gas and oil resources which could then draw them into action within the region. Key organizations to drive the reopening would be the US military and allied military alongside US government backed maritime insurance.

How long can a ship be stuck in the strait before it needs to refuel and restock? Where would they do it?

Generally, commercial and naval vessels do not loiter within the SOH (almost never unless they have a shipboard casualty) due to the constrained traffic separation scheme (2NM each) and persistent security risks (Iranian IRGC/N).

Transits are typically conducted at elevated operational speeds relative to open-ocean economic steaming, which can increase fuel consumption but is planned for in voyage routing. Most vessels enter the transit with sufficient endurance or have contingency plans to refuel at regional hubs such as Fujairah or Jebel Ali in the UAE, ports in Oman or Saudi Arabia, or other Gulf logistics nodes. Naval forces also have access to fleet replenishment ships, providing additional flexibility.

How do naval escorts work, are they all from the US Navy, and are shipping companies willing to risk an Iranian attack even with a military guard?

Currently, US Navy ships are the only ships escorting. To get one of these escorts the ship must be considered a high value unit and/or US flagged. Escorts typically involve coordinated convoy scheduling (CONOPS), surveillance coverage, and layered maritime security presence including surface combatants, maritime patrol aircraft and unmanned systems. Escorts reduce but do not eliminate risk. However, shipping companies continue transits based on commercial necessity, insurance coverage, and risk pricing, as complete avoidance of key chokepoints like Hormuz is often economically infeasible.

If a ship is hit and slightly damaged, can it still make a 15-day trip to Asia, or does it have to stop for repairs nearby?

It depends on the nature and severity of the damage and whether the vessel remains seaworthy under classification society and safety regulations (In the military we call these “redlines”). Minor superficial or non-structural damage may allow continued transit, potentially at reduced speed or under operational restrictions. However, damage affecting propulsion, steering, hull integrity, cargo containment, or significant radar degradation would typically require diversion to the nearest capable repair facility, most likely at regional hubs such as Fujairah, Jebel Ali, or major repair ports in the Indian Ocean or Singapore, due to regulatory, insurance, and safety considerations.

Given the scale of the disruption, the SOH closure is a global economic and energy market event with broad implications for inflation, shipping, supply chains, and geopolitical stability. While military escorts, rerouting strategies, and diplomatic efforts may reduce some near-term risks, the situation remains highly fluid and difficult to predict. As long as the SOH remains materially constrained, markets are likely to continue pricing in elevated energy, transportation, insurance, and geopolitical risk premiums across the global economy.

Disclosures

Ryan King is the spouse of Amelia Bourdeau.

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